CB — Census Bureau. Tracks actual cotton shipments that have physically left the US. Released monthly with a ~6 week lag.
ESR — USDA Export Sales Reporting. Tracks weekly sales commitments — cotton that has been sold but not yet shipped.
Units
RB (Running Bale) — 500 lbs. The standard US cotton bale weight used by Census Bureau.
SB (Statistical Bale) — 480 lbs. Used by USDA and industry for historical comparisons. SB = RB × (500/480).
CB KG (M) — Census Bureau export weight in millions of kilograms.
Cumulative Periods
CY (Calendar Year) — Cumulative total from January 1 of the current year.
MY (Marketing Year) — Cumulative total from August 1. The US cotton marketing year runs Aug–Jul, aligning with the harvest cycle.
Understanding the Gap
The Cumulative Gap is the difference between CB (actual shipments) and ESR (committed sales).
A positive gap means more cotton has shipped than ESR reported — shipments are running ahead of commitments.
A negative gap means ESR has more committed sales than CB has shipped — a pipeline of cotton yet to ship.
This gap is a key forward indicator of export pace.